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The debate over the correct course of policy action has erupted again. Nobel Laureates, led by Joseph Stiglitz, are rallying to the banner of more Keynesian stimulus. They believe that there was nothing flawed in the previous credi-crazed boom. Their version of economics makes no mention of capital hetrogeneity or of the scope for making mistakes in the capital structure because of pricing and incentive distortions (themselves caused by government intervention and the actions of popularity-loving central bankers). Stiglitz recently visited Australia and described its response to the current (it is ongoing after all) global recession as 'the best in the world'. Coming from that source alone tells us that Australia is in deep trouble.
In ExpoAsia No 22/2010 Justin Pyvis describes just how that trouble is likely to manifest itself. Indeed, the beginning signs are there with a disconnect emerging between end-users of property and investors. One indicator has also signaled the first glimpse of house price falls. But it is the trigger for the property market downturn that Justin is interested in. He concludes that rising unemployment over the next few months is likely to be the iceberg that sinks SS Oz.
Posted on Aug 10, 2010 by Justin | Keywords: economics, australia, housing, bubble, stiglitz, ausnomics, housing bubble, asianomics
In ExposAsia No 12, Justin Pyvis of Ausnomics, takes a look at the housing market down under. Much effort was expended during the 2008 financial crisis to keep the housing market from imploding. The result is that Australian household indebtedness has continued to grow and affordability has been pushed to new lows. The bubble bursting may be some way off but the actions of the RBA make a correction in Australia's overheated housing market inevitable while the rest of the economy will just have to suffer under higher interest rates and a huge debt load.
Posted on Apr 08, 2010 by Justin | Keywords: economics, australia, rba, housing, interest rates, ausnomics, asianomics
Today marked the preliminary launch of the Ausnomics website! Expect an announcement in the next few months about what services we are going to provide. For now, please continue to enjoy free economic commentary at our blog, Aussienomics.
Posted on Mar 14, 2010 by Justin | Keywords: ausnomics, launch, news, website
Ausnomics #1: Fool's Paradise was published in ExposAsia No 7/2010.
In ExposAsia No 7, Fool's Paradise, Justin Pyvis of Ausnomics examines the credit conditions in Australia and the response of the banks to the global credit crunch. He finds that through government stimulus measures and central bank support the banking system has fuelled yet another leg of the Australian housing bubble. In turn, the avoidance of technical recession in Australia has come about because of low quality, unproductive sector growth related to housing and construction.
Posted on Feb 19, 2010 by Justin | Keywords: economics, australia, banks, credit, housing, ausnomics, asianomics
Sorry, at present Ausnomics is not accepting subscriptions. If you are interested in subscribing and would like to be notified when we launch, please either fill out the contact form or subscribe to our mailing list.
Posted on May 16, 2009 by Justin | Keywords: ausnomics, members, subscribers
The most recent publications are at the top.
Posted on May 16, 2009 by Justin | Keywords: ausnomics, publications
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Posted on May 16, 2009 by Justin | Keywords: ausnomics, partners
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Posted on May 16, 2009 by Justin | Keywords: ausnomics, services
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Posted on May 16, 2009 by Justin | Keywords: about, ausnomics